It is no secret that I am a baseball fan. I had the luxury of living in a town that had a great minor league baseball team growing up. When I was a child, the Rookie League team was affiliated with the Los Angeles Dodgers. This allowed me to be able to see a future Hall of Famer pitcher in Pedro Martinez not to mention a few solid MLB players like Erik Karros and Jose Offerman. It stoked my interest in baseball. I grew up a Red Sox and Braves fan. The Red Sox because its family required and the Braves because I adored Dale Murphy. At the time I followed the Braves more because the Red Sox were mired in the last days of the Rocket as a Red Sock. My interest in baseball waned for a few years til I got involved in fantasy sports. Fantasy Baseball is crack to me. The stats in baseball are much more geeky than football and that appeals to me. Football you just need to outscore your opponent with yardage and tds. Baseball you need to have pitchers with great WHIPs, K's, and OAVs and hitters with great OPS, Zone Defensive Ratings, and WARs. Though most still play in the traditional 5x5 leagues, Sabremetrics measure better stats. Wins are pretty much useless as a stat to tell who is a good pitcher. I mean Gil Meche once won 15 games in a season. Quality Starts on the other hand help you figure out who really is a good pitcher. So what does this have to do with my column? Absolutely nothing other than to say, I think I know baseball well enough to make my predictions!
Al East- Some claim this is the hardest division to play in but I think the AL Central is because they eat each other for breakfast. I will say this. Two of the best franchises ever do play in this division and the AL Pennant winner has come from this division most on the last 10 years.
1. Boston Red Sox- added Adrian Gonzalez going from a pitcher's heaven to a hitter's heaven. AGone will be a monster in Fenway. Added Carl Crawford and upgraded their overall defense which was a stated goal last season. The Rotation is solid and Beckett and Lackey are poised for bouncebacks. If Dice-K is the 5th starter, something good is going on.
2. New York Yankees(Yankpires)- They added a great 8th inning guy in Rafael Soriano and kept their Captain. They are due to fall maybe but I still think Captain Crunch(Found out he used to eat full boxes of the cereal every morning) Sabbathia is the 2nd best pitcher in baseball.
3. Tampa Bay Don't Call us Devil Rays- Added two Idiots in the twilights of their career but Manny is cheap for them and all he has to do is hit. Johnny Damon is still a serviceable hitter and should do well in the Trop. They might have lost their bullpen but they have David Price and some solid pitchers up and coming. They win 75 games for sure.
4. Toronto Blue Jays- They might leap frog both the 3rd and 2nd teams on this list and sneak into 2nd if their players turn out well. Who would have thought they could have traded their best pitcher and be headed in the right direction? They win 70 games or better. Jose Bautista Must prove he is real though for that to happen. They are poised to compete in the next few years like the Rays in 2008.
5. Baltimore Orioles- Will actually be close to .500 this year! They signed some good hitters in Vlad Daddy and Derek Lee and have some good young players. The Greek and Adam Not PacMan Jones need to pick it up after last season.
Al Central- They eat each other every year which is why the AL Beast gets the Wild Card.
1. Minnesota Twins- All they did was resign a great lockeroom guy and almost 600 HRs in Jim Thome. They signed a Japanese Import with tremendous upside. They kept Carl Pavano and his weird mustache. If Justin Morneau returns to health, they win 90 games.
2. Chicago White Sox- Added Adam Dunn, kept Mr. White Sock Konerko but lost their closer to the other Sox. Ozzie Guillen knows how to compete though we will see if he keeps his job if him and Kenny Williams keep butting heads.
3. Detroit Tigers- They could switch places with the White Sox if Miguel Cabrera gets his head on straight. But they traded Mr. Almost Perfect for no real reason. They should have kept Gallaraga. They signed Victor Martinez to DH and play 1b when Cabrera needs to rest. We will see if that works out for them.
4. Kansas City Royals- They aren't as crappy as years past even after trading Zack Greinke. They will still suck but Billy Butler will at least make some fantasy owner happy and Joakim Soria will continue to put up ungodly stats when you know he gets in the game.
5. Cleveland Indians- Poor Cleveland, I can't even say much more than that. This is like Major League but you know with no real chance of actually winning something.
Al West
1. Oakland A's- They had one of the best offeasons albeit quiet. Their division rivals all got worse by losing key players or losing out on key free agents. They have a young team and their catcher is sneaky good.
2. California Angels- I refuse to call them by anything other than that because that's what they are to me. I attended an Angels game when Wally Joyner was playing for them. They have a better pitching staff than the Rangers. Still they will suck after not upgrading at any offensive position.
3. Texas Rangers- They Fucked Up. Not only could they not sign their best Free Agent, they upset their Franchise face and signed a guy who is only good in contract years. They have some good young guys but Feliz, Wilson, and Andrus need to prove it to me that they can continue their uptick from last season. They still upgraded their catcher position which was a glaring problem last season, but is Napoli(who might not catch at all), and Torreable really that great of an upgrade. I will say if Brandon Webb is healthy, they might be better. I just forsee a freefall for Colby Lewis especially.
4. Seattle Mariners- They. Still. Cannot. Hit. King Felix will be gone by July and they will be the worst team not named the Cleveland Indians. Another sad summer in Seattle. Ichiro might also demand a trade if they cannot compete.
The Indians are gonna be better than KC, the Angels had a horrible offseason, I still like TEX to win the worthless west (although I agree OAK is close), and the Orioles are the best team in baseball don't you ever forget
ReplyDeleteMaybe it's just pessimism and the impending doom of a rehabbing closer and concussed clean-up hitter, but as a Twins fan I'm bracing myself for a let down this year.
ReplyDeleteThough I don't think Dunn will fare as well in the AL, I think the Tigers are better than advertised (assuming Cabrera plays at all this year). We need to find a way to pitch through the division and further in the postseason--unless we can pick up King Felix in exchange for 5,000 Lakes I don't know if we can go all that far
Man... I SO hope you're right about the Twins but I'm with Ben. For some reason I feel the pit of doom in my stomach. We shall see.
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