Tuesday, January 15, 2013

Broncos Loss to the Ravens Not A Referendum On Manning

That's right, despite the fact that Peyton Manning had several turnovers in the Divisional round playoff game against the Baltimore Ravens, he is not to blame for the Broncos' loss. Forget the interceptions and the fumbles, Peyton Manning won that game. Yes, I know what the final score of the game was, but that does not change the fact that Peyton Manning won that game. Allow me to elaborate.

Just think about all of the things that led to this loss for the Broncos. First off, allow me to get it right out of the way, the officiating was straight out abysmal. Phantom pass interference calls followed up by non-calls on clear pass interferences. This was seen in the two of the first three series of the game. After the Ravens punted and Trindon Holliday returned the punt for a touchdown, the Ravens were staring at another third and long. A ball was terribly overthrown by Flacco, Tony Carter played the receiver perfectly, keeping his body between the receiver and the ball, while continuing to play the ball. He followed the path of the ball out of bounds and the receiver went with him without any issues. Flag, PI. Ummm, no.  Few plays later, bomb, touchdown.

Then the next series for the Broncos, third and about eight, Manning throws a pass to Eric Decker that gets batted up in the air, picked off and returned for a touchdown. Forgetting the fact that Manning is the last person that can be blamed for that type of interception, Decker was clearly interfered with and the flag was not thrown. This continued throughout the game, in addition to some just god awful game administration throughout the game that didn't allow any type of flow to the game at all. And the fumble that was the absolute definition of a "tuck rule" incompletion. You get the point.

Second, think about how people said he was incapable of playing in the cold. Previously, in the three other games that Manning had played below 40 degrees, he had thrown only one touchdown and seven INTs. He threw three TDs during this game and didn't appear to have any issues throwing the ball. The only interception/turnover that was on him was the one that happened in overtime.

Third, the Bronco defense was pathetic. Champ Bailey should be ashamed of the way he played, Von Miller and the Denver pass rush were horrendous and gave precisely no pressure to Joe Flacco. When there was some type of adversity, the defense was unable to hold the Ravens out of the endzone like they were able to do to teams consistently throughout the Broncos' 11-game win streak.

Fourth, the coaching was horrible. No adjustments were made, at least no visible ones, to a team that had been one of the best at adjusting on the fly and between the first and second halves in the entire league. The defensive coaches, especially, were a gigantic failure. Failing to see that Champ was having trouble staying with Torrey Smith and adjusting accordingly.

Still, despite all of this, Peyton Manning led his team on a fourth quarter drive that was capped off with a touchdown pass from Manning to Demarius Thomas. Despite all these things working against him; the poor officiating, the horrible play of the defense, the frigid cold weather and the seeming ineptitude of the Bronco coaching staff, Peyton Manning had the Broncos up 35-28 with just over one minute to go in the game. And then the unthinkable happened.

Then Rahim Moore left the biggest pile of excrement in the history of Denver football on his own five yard line. Rahim Moore makes the stupidest play of any player in this football year, and really any in recent memory, and suddenly we're in overtime. This game does not show Manning's lack of a killer instinct in the playoffs, as some with microphones are saying, not at all. If Rahim Moore has half a damn brain and does the only thing that a safety is supposed to do in this situation, not let any receivers get behind you, we're talking about Manning overcoming everything. We're talking about Manning dispelling the myths of his inability to play in cold weather. Hell, if I were on the field for that one play, and not Rahim Moore, the Broncos would be preparing for the New England Patriots right now.

I say again, Peyton Manning won that game. He won it, until his own team lost it for him.

Friday, January 11, 2013

Divisional Playoff Picks

What a weekend of football we've got ahead of us. I can't wait, so I won't. Here's my picks for the weeks.

Saturday Games:

Baltimore @ Denver: This one isn't tough at all. It's true that I bleed orang and blue, but come on. The Broncos are a far superior team. They creamed Baltimore in the regular season and will use the same game plan to do it again. Baltimore gets too much respect for how good their defense used to be, but they just aren't that dominant defense anymore. Even when Ray Lewis was healthy and in the lineup, they were giving up a ton of rushing yards to not so great teams. Manning will pick them apart, Broncos, easily.

Green Bay @ San Francisco: This one is tougher. San Francisco creamed Green Bay in week 1, but that was obviously a long time ago. San Francisco's offense is a bit different now that Colin Kaepernick is running it, and it's more dangerous. Green Bay has Aaron Rodgers and the confidence and poise, but they don't have that great of an offensive line. San Francisco has one of the better pass rushes and overall defenses in the league and I think that will be the difference. I'll take the Niners.

Sunday Games:

Seattle @ Atlanta: Atlanta has yet to do anything that has proven they can win in the playoffs, and until they do, I can't pick them. Seattle.

Houston @ New England: Houston will have to be a completely different team than the one they were last time in New England. They can beat the Patriots, but they need defense to really be better. You can beat Brady if you can fluster him, and you do that by hitting him. We'll see, but I'm not too optimistic for Houston. Give me the Pats, as much as I hate it.

Meaning, your conference championship games will be:

New England @ Denver

Seattle @ San Francisco

Friday, January 4, 2013

NFL Picks: Wild Card Weekend

NFL playoffs are upon us and the big journey towards the Lombardi Trophy is on! The top seeds are sitting at home this weekend, waiting to see who they will play in the divisional round, and we should be in line for some fantastic football as the wild card teams try to be the next surprise champ. Here we go!

Saturday Games:

Cincinnati at Houston:

Two teams heading in opposite directions. Houston spent most of the year at the top of the AFC, only to choke away one of the top two seeds in the final few weeks of the season. Cincinnati, on the other hand, overcame some midseason troubles to get into the wild card, defeating the Steelers in Pittsburgh for the first time in many, many years.  The Bengals are brimming with confidence, while the Texans have been deflated and defeated.

It's really hard to saw which way this is going to go, so I have to just go with my gut. My gut tells me that Cincinnati is riding the right wave at the moment and can use all of their momentum to get past the Texans. Which Houston team shows up is really the thing that will determine it.

Minnesota at Green Bay:

This should be another fantastic game, a very heated divisional rivalry on the frozen tundra of Lambeau Field. The Packers have got to be mad about the fact that Minnesota put the final dagger in their hope for the second seed in the NFC and a first-week bye. Minnesota has shown that they are able to beat Green Bay, but it just doesn't seem like something that's going to come by this time around. The last time these two teams played in Green Bay, Adrian Peterson ran all over the Packers for more than 200 yards, but the Vikings still lost the game. I'll take the Packers.

Sundays Games:

Indianapolis at Baltimore:

Another very interesting matchup with two teams going in opposite directions. The Ravens have been in free-fall since they ran out to a 9-2 record. Now, of course, they are getting Ray Lewis back who has announced that he is retiring at the end of the year. So the Ravens have a bit of a "win one for the Gipper" movement going for them, but the Colts have been riding that same type of wave all season with Chuck Pagano.  People generally assume that the Ravens' defense is going to carry them, but this year that is different. Even when Ray Lewis was in the lineup early in the season, the Ravens were struggling horribly to stop the run and were looking kind of old.

Now, the Colts don't exactly have the best rushing game, but they have been surprising people all year long. Still, I don't think they get by the Ravens in this one. It'll be a close game, with a lot of emotion going on each side, but the Ravens will barely manage to squeeze out of this one, despite Joe Flacco.

Seattle at Washington:

Washington is the only team that is hosting a playoff game this weekend that is an underdog, and that's quite interesting. Now Seattle has been going out like gangbusters on several teams over the past few weeks, but many of those games were at home where Seattle is nearly unbeatable. On the road, Seattle has struggled, and going into the hostile confines of FedEx Stadium (formerly RFK Stadium) they will have to deal with a lot of that.

This should be a very good game. Washington runs the ball fantastically, and Seattle stops the run very efficiently. Which of these two exciting rookie quarterbacks is able to make the most plays will be the thing that will decide this. Both have shown the ability to do so, but RGIII has more of the big game player in him right now, I think. Give me the Skins at home.

Meaning the Divisional matchups will look like this.

AFC:
Cincinnati at Denver
Baltimore at New England

NFC:
Washington at Atlanta
Green Bay at San Francisco

BRING IT!!

Wednesday, January 2, 2013

Peyton Manning; 5-time NFL MVP

Obviously we don't know this yet, but if you really sit yourself down and think about it, there isn't really that great of a reason as to why this won't happen. Peyton Manning will be MVP for the fifth time in his NFL career.

But hold on, some of you might say. Adrian Peterson just rushed for 2,000 yards, how on earth can you possibly vote against a guy who rushed for 2,000 yards? Well, that is a very interesting question. Let's take a look at all of this.

Adrian Peterson is now the seventh running back in the history of the NFL to break the 2,000 yard mark. He joins O.J. Simpson, Eric Dickerson, Barry Sanders, Terrell Davis, Jamal Lewis and Chris Johnson. One might think that, since this is such an exclusive group that doing this would almost be a shoe-in for the MVP. Strangely enough, that isn't the case.

Of these gentlemen, only O.J. Simpson and Terrell Davis have won the MVP outright when rushing for 2,000 yards. Barry Sanders shared an MVP with Brett Favre during his 2,000-yard campaign. Neither Jamal Lewis nor Chris Johnson were MVPs, and Eric Dickerson, who holds the NFL record for most rushing yards in a single season, didn't even get a share of the MVP. He was beaten out by Dan Marino.

So, there goes that argument. Now, that isn't to say that Peterson shouldn't be considered for MVP because he absolutely should. He's had a remarkable season and he should be recognized for that, but he is not a shoe in.

Now let's bring Peyton Manning in here. Manning is the most prolific NFL MVP in the history of the game, winning the award four separate times. Manning won MVPs in 2003, 2004, 2008 and 2009. For the sake of perspective, let's put up his numbers in each of those years.

2003: 379 completions, 579 attempts, 67.0% completion %, 4,267 yards, 29 TDs, 10 INTs, 99.0 rating (this was before the new QBR numbers)

2004: 336 completions, 497 attempts, 67.6% completion %, 4,557 yards, 49 TDs, 10 INTs, 121.1 rating.

2008: 371 completions, 555 attempts, 66.8% completion %, 4,002 yards, 27 TDs, 12 INTs, 79.8 QBR, 95.0 rating.

2009: 393 completions, 571 attempts, 68.8% completions %, 4,500 yards, 33 TDs, 16 INTs, 82.9 QBR, 99.9 rating.

2012: 400 completions, 583 attempts, 68.6% completion %, 4,659 yards, 37 TDs, 11 INTs, 84.1 QBR, 105.8 rating.

By his numbers, Manning has widely outperformed not only what most people expected of him, but some of his best performances in his entire career. Now that doesn't necessarily make him a shoe-in, but these numbers are certainly MVP-worthy.

Then let's look where these two players have taken their respective teams. It's been well publicized that both of these guys have recovered from major injuries to have amazing seasons. Still, only one of these players were actually playing last season as well.

Peterson has always been one of the best players on the Vikings, but even while putting up decent numbers the Vikings have struggled. A lot of things went right for the Vikings this year, and Peterson was a huge part of that, but we have seen that Peterson's success doesn't always equal Vikings' success.

Yes, a 3-13 record going to a record of 10-6 is impressive, but Peterson only missed four games last season.

The Denver Broncos were a mediocre team in a bad division a season ago. Wallowing underneath the horrifying phenomenon that was Tebow-mania. Yes, the Broncos were division winners last season, but they were in one of the weakest divisions in football at the meager record of 8-8. Enter Peyton Manning. The Broncos are now 13-3 and the top seed in the AFC playoffs with one of the top offenses in the whole NFL.

The Manning effect has had a much greater effect in Denver than Peterson's has in Minnesota, and that is something that the voters will have to acknowledge.

Now, there is a remote possibility that the two could share the award. It wouldn't be unprecedented, though it isn't exactly a regular occurrence. It has happened, but only twice. Of course, one of those time was a 2,000 yard rusher sharing the award with a quarterback that had a brilliant year.

Either way, Peyton Manning certainly is deserving and will win his fifth MVP.